Will Donald Trump win the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections?

This market will resolve Yes if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate or House elections? No, wait — this market resolves based on whether Donald Trump personally wins a seat? Actually, the title means: This market resolves Yes if Donald Trump wins the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections as the leader/candidate of the Republican Party (i.e. Republicans gain control of the House and/or Senate with Trump as the central figure). Primary Resolution Source: Official results from the U.S. House of Representatives Clerk (clerk.house.gov) and U.S. Senate (senate.gov), or Associated Press / Reuters / New York Times race calls. - The market resolves Yes if Republicans take control of both chambers or Donald Trump is widely recognized as the winner/leader of the 2026 midterms. - Resolution will be based on the final certified results. - UTC Cutoff: 23:59 UTC on June 18, 2026. - In case of any delay, resolution will occur within 7 days of official certification. - Fallback sources: Consensus of AP, Reuters, CNN, and Fox News. - If the election is postponed or cancelled, the market resolves No.